Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from across the border, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been deployed to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches targeted at a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This pattern will, certainly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.
